PAPER TITLE :MATHEMATICAL MODELLING AND SIMULATION OF MENINGOCOCCAL MENINGITIS TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS.

FUTA JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN SCIENCE | VOLUME 14 NUMBER 1 2018

Paper Details

  • Author(s) : YUSUF, T. T.
  • Abstract:

Meningococcal meningitis disease remains a serious public heath challenge in the Meningitis belt. Despite series of
measures taken to address the problem the disease often reoccurs at unpredicted times. This necessitates continuous
research into the problem to find a lasting solution to the menace. Here, a deterministic model for the transmission
dynamics of the disease with a variable total population is considered. The disease basic reproduction number
( ) 0 ? is derived and the model equilibria are obtained. It is established that the disease free equilibrium is globally
asymptotically stable whenever 1 0 ? ? . The model is solved numerically with Nigeria demographic data.
Numerical simulations of our model results indicate that the prevalence and incidence of the disease both tend to
zero for scenarios with 1 0 ? ? ; this corroborates the conclusion from our analysis. Findings from our simulations
also show that control measures which reduce the disease transmission rate and immunity waning rate as well as
increase the vaccination and treatment success rate would be effective in eradicating Meningitis epidemic in the
belt on the long-run.
Keywords: Meningococcal meningitis, Disease prevalence, Disease incidence, Global asymptotic stability, Basic
reproduction number.